Karnataka State Assembly Elections: All You Need to Know

A total of 3,632 candidates filed nominations for the May 10 Karnataka Assembly elections, as per data from the Election Commission. Of the total candidates, 304 are women and one is from the “others” category. 

There were 707 nominations from the BJP, 651 from the Congress, 455 from the JD(S), 373 from the Aam Aadmi Party, 179 from BSP, five each from CPI(M) and NPP. There were 1,007 nominations by registered unrecognized parties and 1,720 by independents.

The average age for a candidate in this round of elections is 43 years - far ahead of the average age of the state itself, which is projected to be 26. Such discrepancy illustrates the actual gap in age-accurate representation in the state. This does not come as a surprise considering that Karnataka is not unique in its inability to place young people in politics. In fact, this is the trend seen in most of India. 

The events surrounding these elections continue to fascinate, with the candidature of Shamanur Shivashankarappa, who at 92 years of age, has become the oldest person to ever contest elections for MLA in the state. Contesting from the Indian National Congress, Shivashankarappa is a party veteran, a five-time MLA, and has been a member of the Lok Sabha. Contending from Davanagere South, he has held complete sway for more than 50 years. 

On the other end of the spectrum, a few 25-year-olds have become the youngest candidates to contest this election, toeing the line of the minimum age of candidacy itself. Hailing from Bhartiya Janta Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, and Karnataka Rashtra Samiti, they give hope to Karnataka’s 2.1 crore youth who are vying for more authentic representation. These young hopefuls include Sunil Rathod (KRS candidate from Babaleshwar), Rakesh Ingalagi (KRS candidate from Bijapur City), Jaanashekhar K (BSP candidate from Gurmitkal), Bharati (BJP candidate from Chittapur), and Mahammad Kaleem (BSP candidate from Davanagere South).

However, there is a clear disconnect in proportionate political representation in terms of sex. Even though the state has a sex ratio of 973 females per 1000 males, women’s options to vote for a candidate who understands their disposition are scarce. Newcomers Aam Aadmi Party have the most number of women candidates contesting in the state, even though only 14.5% of its candidates are female. This ratio is even more abysmal in other parties, with the Bahujan Samaj Party clocking in with the lowest number of female candidates as only 4.1% of the total number of candidates are women.

The candidature of an incumbent represents the reinvestment of their party’s faith in them, even though the same feeling may or may not be shared by the voters. BJP has the highest number of incumbent candidates in the Karnataka state elections with 39.9% of its candidates being incumbents. Whereas, both Karnataka Rashtra Samiti and Bahujan Samaj Party are only backing fresh candidates. 

Incumbency brings experience and reputation to the table. At the same time, incumbents tend to be the most divisive according to the varying reception and perceptions of their previous activities. With an anti-incumbency wave sweeping through the country in the past year across local, state, and national-level elections, it will be interesting to see how many incumbents successfully hold onto their power. 

Elections in Karnataka have also been plagued for a long time with the problem of urban voter apathy. Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar said that compared to the 72.44% voter turnout during the 2018 Assembly elections in the state, the four divisions in Bengaluru  - BBMP South, North, Central, and Bengaluru Urban - had polled only around 55%. It is worth noting that over 88% of the 8,615 polling stations in these four divisions (across the 28 Assembly constituencies) are in urban areas. Similar trends were seen during the 2013 and 2008 state elections.

“Apathy in the urban electorate is a trend observed in elections across the country. What is worrisome is that the voting percentage in urban areas has been decreasing over the years. It was seen in the States of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, which went to polls last year. In the 2019 general elections, the urban constituencies - Hyderabad, Patna Sahib, Secunderabad, Kalyan, Pune, Thane, Mumbai South, Kanpur, and Allahabad showed a similar trend,“ Mr. Kumar told the Hindu. 

If we further contrast the above with the distribution of Karnataka’s youth population (defined as those between the ages of 15 and 29) across the state, we find that the highest numbers are seen in Urban Bengaluru with 21.73% residing in the area. This area remains far ahead of the other in terms of youth concentration with the runner-up being Belagavi at only 7%. At the same time, the rural district of Kodagu (or Coorg) has the lowest proportion, accounting only for 0.69%. The highly dispersed youth population of the state requires an equitable approach toward mobilizing youth-centric voter turnout. 

Education plays a key role in influencing not only election results but the turnout itself. In 2018, Youth Education Attainment rates for the 15-20 age group indicated that 61.71% of women and 56.29% of men were educated only till the 10th grade or under. While around 33% and 37% of women and men respectively were able to reach 11th and 12th grades, only 5.03% of the former and 6.55% of the latter were set to obtain an undergraduate degree.

In terms of the 21-30 years age group, 57.71% of women and 38.38% of men were educated up to the 10th grade. 21% of women and 28% of men had studied only till the 11th and 12th grades while 18.12% of the former and 28.65% of the latter earned an undergraduate degree. Around 2% of women and 3% of men were able to reach the postgraduate level of higher education. At the other end of the spectrum, around 1 percent of men and women obtained no education at all. 

School dropout rates indicate the failure of the state in its education intervention initiatives until now, for not just the placement of children in schools but their retention. Almost 1% of boys and girls drop out of primary school while 1.21% of boys and 1.97% of girls drop out at the upper primary level. This number is higher for both groups at the secondary level, with 9.74% of boys and 6.23% of girls dropping out at this age.

Employment remains an important issue for the contending parties in the election, reflecting national figures of the overall youth participation in the labour force. When we look at the state’s youth labor participation rate of 2018, we find that 58.65% of the youth population is not a part of the labor force. 4.65% of the total youth population is unemployed while 36.7% is employed.

For the country to take advantage of the demographic dividend, we require the youth to be properly trained. Of the youth population, 75% of women are untrained, compared to the 15% who are. In a similar trend, 81% of young men are not trained while 19% of them are.

Amid this, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, who is also running for reelection, said that the BJP manifesto for the upcoming Assembly polls promises to catapult Karnataka as the most powerful state. The BJP manifesto has been prepared after understanding the feelings and voices of the general public, he added. The parties in the state also continue to tussle over the issue of reservations. Congress claims that the BJP betrayed the people of the state on the issue while the BJP refrains from act, citing the reason as “awaiting the Supreme Court’s verdict”.

The above are some of the determining factors that are set to steer the course of this election. We will be watching to see how these are interpreted and brought to justice by the electors and candidates ultimately chosen on poll day. Young India Foundation is committed to providing you all with the information you need to effectively exercise your right to vote or to be a critical political spectator from a different state, learning in anticipation of their own time. The power, as always, remains in your hands.